Landslide inventories for climate impacts research in the European Alps

Author's manuscript version. The final published article is available from the publisher via: doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.09.005Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Landslides present a geomorphological hazard in Alpine regions, threatening life, infrastructure and property. Here we present the development of a new regional landslide inventory (RI) for the European Alps. This database provides a substantial temporal and spatial picture of landsliding in the Alps, with particular focus on the Swiss and French Alps. We use segmented models to evaluate recording bias in the temporal record. We use scaling relationships to calculate landslide area based on a given volume for similar types of landslide; with the result of this being that 9.5% of the landslides recorded in the RI now have area data recorded. These landslide area data are then used to examine the log-linear trend, which exists between landslide area and frequency in inventories. We show that this relationship is present for this historical dataset; however, none of the individual databases, nor a unification of these, contain a complete record with the small and larger landslides being recorded more consistently. The use of segmented models on the temporal distribution of landslides in the RI shows that the post-1970 portion of the database is more reliable, highlighted through an improved power-law relationship, although the frequency of medium sized landslides is still underestimated. We show that creating a unified database (RI) can increase the reliability of datasets and consistency in recording for the use by researchers for attribution and detection studies.Lloyds of Londo

Landslides and synoptic weather trends in the European Alps

Landslides present a substantial geomorphological hazard in Alpine regions and there are expectations that their frequency and magnitude will change as weather and climate change in the future. Understanding the spatial extent and timing of landslides is therefore important if we are to assess their future behaviour. Using a regional landslide inventory for the European Alps (1970-2002) we analyse the influence of synoptic weather types on landsliding. Brier Skill Scores are used to assess the predictive ability of over 5,000 different synoptic weather classifications (COST733 dataset) with the landslide inventory. Monte Carlo permutation tests show a strong seasonal influence of weather types on landsliding, and that weather types associated with high precipitation are consistent with more landslides. Over the duration of the COST733 dataset (1957-2002), summer months have seen a significant increase in the number of days with weather types associated with high frequencies of landslides, whilst the converse is true of winter months; this is not reflected in the inventory landslide frequency. We finally discuss the applications of this analysis, and point to future avenues of research.We thank Lloyd’s of London for funding this research

Aeolian sediment reconstructions from the Scottish Outer Hebrides: Late Holocene storminess and the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Northern Europe can be strongly influenced by winter storms driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a positive NAO index associated with greater storminess in northern Europe. However, palaeoclimate reconstructions have suggested that the NAO-storminess relationship observed during the instrumental period is not consistent with the relationship over the last millennium, especially during the Little Ice Age (LIA), when it has been suggested that enhanced storminess occurred during a phase of persistent negative NAO. To assess this relationship over a longer time period, a storminess reconstruction from an NAO-sensitive area (the Outer Hebrides) is compared with Late Holocene NAO reconstructions. The patterns of storminess are inferred from aeolian sand deposits within two ombrotrophic peat bogs, with multiple cores and two locations used to distinguish the storminess signal from intra-site variability and local factors. The results suggest storminess increased after 1000 cal yrs BP, with higher storminess during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) than the LIA, supporting the hypothesis that the NAO-storminess relationship was consistent with the instrumental period. However the shift from a predominantly negative to positive NAO at c.2000 cal yrs BP preceded the increased storminess by 1000 years. We suggest that the long-term trends in storminess were caused by insolation changes, while oceanic forcing may have influenced millennial variability

Investigating the maximum resolution of µXRF core scanners: a 1800 year storminess reconstruction from the Outer Hebrides

Micro x-ray fluorescence (µXRF) core scanning is capable of measuring the elemental composition of lake sediment at sub-millimetre resolution, but bioturbation and physical mixing may degrade environmental signals at such fine scales. The aim of this research is to determine the maximum possible resolution at which meaningful environmental signals may be reconstructed from lake sediments using this method. Sediment from a coastal lake in the Outer Hebrides, Scotland, has been analysed using calibrated element measurements to reconstruct storminess since AD 200. We find that a Ca/K ratio in lake-core sediments reflects the presence of fine calcium carbonate shell fragments, a constituent of sand in the catchment that is washed and blown into the lake. Variations in this ratio are significantly correlated with instrumental records of precipitation and low pressures, suggesting it is a proxy for storminess. Furthermore, identification of a c. 60-year cycle supports a climatic influence on Ca/K, as this cycle is frequently identified in reconstructions of the North Atlantic Oscillation and North Atlantic sea-surface temperature. Comparison with weather records at different resolutions and spectral analysis indicate that µXRF data from Loch Hosta can be interpreted at sub-decadal resolutions (equivalent to core depth intervals of 3–5 mm in this location). Therefore, we suggest that sub-centimetre sampling using µXRF core scanning could be beneficial in producing environmental reconstructions in many lake settings where sediments are not varved

The emergence of topographic steady state in a perpetually dynamic self-organized critical landscape

We conducted a series of four physical modeling experiments of mountain growth at differing rates of uplift and three distinct climates ranging from relatively wet to relatively dry. The spatial and temporal pattern of landscape behavior is characterized by ∼f−1 scaling in sediment discharge and power law scaling in the magnitude and frequency of ridge movement in all four experiments. We find that internally generated self-organized critical (SOC) processes generate dynamically stable catchment geometries after ∼1 relief depths of erosion: these regularly spaced catchments have an average outlet-spacing ratio of 2.16, well within the range of values reported in field studies. Once formed, large catchment bounding ridges oscillate about a critically balanced mean location, with occasional large-scale changes in catchment size. Ridge movement appears to be driven by the competition for discharge as landslides push ridges back and forth. These dynamics lead to the emergence of a complex twofold scaling in catchment dynamics that is fully established by 1.8 relief depths of erosion; at this stage, a clear threshold has emerged separating two distinct scaling regimes, where large ridge mobility is insensitive to relief and small ridge mobility is relief dependent. Overall, we demonstrate that the development of dynamically stable large-scale landforms is related to the emergence of a complex-system hierarchy in topographic dynamics. Once formed, these landscapes do not evolve; statistical properties such as average topography and discharge become stationary while topography remains highly dynamic at smaller length scales

Climate Change and the Global Pattern of Moraine-Dammed Glacial Lake Outburst Floods

Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century

Past changes in the North Atlantic storm track driven by insolation and sea-ice forcing

Changes in the location of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks may cause significant societal and economic impacts under future climate change, but projections of future changes are highly uncertain and drivers of long-term changes are poorly understood. Here we develop a late Holocene storminess reconstruction from northwest Spain and combine this with an equivalent record from the Outer Hebrides, Scotland, to measure changes in the dominant latitudinal position of the storm track. The north-south index shows that storm tracks moved from a southern position to higher latitudes over the past 4000 yr, likely driven by a change from meridional to zonal atmospheric circulation, associated with a negative to positive North Atlantic Oscillation shift. We suggest that gradual polar cooling (caused by decreasing solar insolation in summer and amplified by sea-ice feedbacks) and mid-latitude warming (caused by increasing winter insolation) drove a steepening of the winter latitudinal temperature gradient through the late Holocene, resulting in the observed change to a more northern winter storm track. Our findings provide paleoclimate support for observational and modeling studies that link changes in the latitudinal temperature gradient and sea-ice extent to the strength and shape of the circumpolar vortex. Together this evidence now suggests that North Atlantic winter storm tracks may shift southward under future warming as sea-ice extent decreases and the mid- to high-latitude temperature gradient decreases, with storms increasingly affecting southern Europe

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Tectonics and topography : a study of mountain denudation in southern Spain

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